Tensions rise in Zanzibar with polls expected to be fiercely contested

Zanzibaries are voting in general elections on Tuesday and Wednesday, 28 and 29 October 2025,  with the odds heavily stacked against the opposition by an electoral commission under the control of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, says the main opposition party ACT-Wazalendo.

Nevertheless a fierce contest is expected on the island — unlike mainland Tanzania, where the election of the incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan is considered a mere formality.

The two main opposition presidential contenders were knocked out of the race on the mainland even before it began. Tundu Lissu, leader of the largest opposition party Chadema, is in jail on treason charges and Luhaga Mpina, the candidate of ACT-Wazalendo, the second-largest party, has been disqualified by the electoral commission “in a manner which has clearly been orchestrated and which is inconsistent with the law”, the party says.

This leaves Samia facing only smaller opposition parties like Chaumma and CUF in the race, which have no realistic chance of beating her. This is her first election as she was deputy president when then president John Magufuli died in office in 2021, and so succeeded him automatically. 

Read more: Tanzania turns back clock to brutal, repressive Magufuli era as elections loom

Against the odds

But if the mainland election is “a coronation not a contest” as the BBC aptly put it, on the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar, which elects its own representatives, ACT-Wazalendo’s presidential candidate Othman Masoud, Zanzibar’s vice-president in a unity government, is giving the CCM candidate Hussein Ali Mwinyi a real run for his money. 

“ACT Wazalendo is heading into the 2025 polls on an extremely unequal and unfair footing,” the party said in a statement on the eve of the polls.

“The odds are stacked against us by an electoral commission under the control of the ruling party.” But it added, “The process may be rigged, but Zanzibaris will still come out in their masses to vote for ACT Wazalendo.”

Othman told journalists in an online briefing that despite the poor odds, his party would still win because it had  “overwhelming public support”. He said his campaign had focused on the deeply ingrained corruption of the CCM administration in Zanzibar and shortfalls in policy such as economic empowerment, education policy and health services, public service.

The party had also explained how it would address the universal pension, which he said was too small. 

Read more: Tanzanian president drops pretence of reform amid retreat from democracy in east Africa

But the main issue was how the election was being conducted, with many violations of the law, including the denial of voter registration to many people who were qualified, and registration of many who should have been denied, including the deceased.

He also said the appointment of polling officers had been unlawful, including appointing military personnel “so that they can give them direction on how to handle the results”.

Deceased voters

Othman also complained about the arrangements for early voting that was to take place on Tuesday. He said the law stipulated that only the staff of the electoral commission and of security organs such as the police and a few others such as the Red Cross were allowed to vote early.

“The number should not exceed 7,000 in total, out of 717,000 voters in Zanzibar,” he said. 

Yet the electoral commission had announced about 50,000 early voters, “which is ridiculous”.

The electoral commission had been unable to explain the high numbers but ACT-Wazalendo had studied the early voters’ registry, and he said it contained many regular members and even some candidates of the ruling CCM “and quite a significant number of deceased people”.

Othman also said that the number of early voters registered was disproportionately high in constituencies that CCM most wanted to win. And he said the electoral commission had refused his party’s demand that the results of the early voting should be announced as soon as it had been completed.

Othman said the government’s disqualification of Lissu and Mpina and the other restrictions on civic space would significantly affect voter turnout on the mainland, but not on Zanzibar. 

Read more: Prominent African leaders urge Tanzania to free opposition leader Tundu Lissu and unban his party

He also noted that his party had observed a significant influx of security forces from the mainland for the elections. 

Othman was also asked to comment on suggestions that the elections could experience the same sort of Gen Z protests that had recently rocked Madagascar and Kenya. 

He replied that it was possible because “the sentiment is there, the grievances are there”, but suggested it was unlikely because Tanzanian civil society was not as well organised as it was in, say, Kenya.

Othman also suggested he would gain support even from CCM supporters on Zanzibar who were unhappy with CCM’s refusal to grant Zanzibar greater autonomy, including getting a more equitable say in matters affecting the union with the mainland. 

Flashpoint

Nicodemus Minde, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Nairobi, said: “Repression on the mainland will likely keep dissent subdued. Fear, widespread apathy and the ongoing treason case against Lissu reduce the likelihood of Chadema-led mass protests, even amid growing citizen frustration.

“In contrast, Zanzibar stands out as a potential flashpoint. With its history of election-related tensions and an anticipated heavy security presence from the mainland, the use of vigilante groups known as mazombi increases the risk of post-election violence, especially around disputed early voting.

“These will be the first general elections in Zanzibar without Seif Sharif Hamad, a key opposition figure who died in 2021. He was a reconciliatory figure and could often calm his base after elections. His successor, Othman Masoud, is viewed as more uncompromising, which could deepen divisions and tensions,” said Minde. DM