Springboks’ European tour success rests on France and Ireland clashes

Having successfully defended their Rugby Championship title, the Springboks will have another point to prove when they tackle the Six Nations champions as well as their bogey side on a monumental five-match tour to Europe in November.

If the Boks come through the sojourn with victories against France and Ireland, and possibly five wins overall, they will head into the 2027 World Cup draw on 3 December as Test rugby’s leading team and early favourites for yet another global crown.

The tour to Europe will simulate a World Cup campaign. Rassie Erasmus has selected 36 players – although 10 more are on standby – and will have to juggle his resources carefully across games played against Japan, France, Italy, Ireland and Wales.

The importance of the matches in Paris (8 November) and Dublin (22 November) may influence his selections during the five-match block. Everything may be geared towards peaking against France in week two and Ireland in week four.

There are, however, a few management challenges that Erasmus and company will have to navigate in the build-up.

The quirky nature of the Test schedule sees the first tour game against Japan (1 November) and the last against Wales (29 November) falling outside the sanctioned international window.

The upshot is that the Boks may be without Europe-based stars such as Thomas du Toit and RG Snyman for the clashes in London and Cardiff.

Although local and Europe-based Boks have featured in the respective club competitions since the conclusion of the Rugby Championship, the 10-man Japan-based contingent has been dormant as the Japanese club season doesn’t start until December.

Erasmus has already suggested that the likes of Pieter-Steph du Toit, Malcolm Marx and others based in the Far East will be unleashed against Japan at Wembley. This will ensure that they have some game time under the belt before they battle France a week later.

Japan (ranked 13th in the world) are not as competitive as they were when they beat the Boks in Brighton 10 years ago, or when they progressed to the quarterfinals of their home World Cup in 2019.

Nevertheless, Erasmus may give the bulk of his first-choice players a chance to gel and acclimatise in this fixture before the showdown with France. The Boks haven’t faced the French since that dramatic 2023 World Cup quarterfinal in Paris, and the upcoming game has long been billed as a rematch.

World Cup draw

Much has been said about the 2027 World Cup draw in December and the new four-playoff format that will be introduced at the next tournament in Australia.

As it stands, the Boks (first in the World Rugby rankings) are on course to finish the Test season among the top six-ranked teams. This outcome will ensure that they avoid other leading teams in that bracket when the draw is held – at this stage, the top six includes New Zealand, Ireland, France, England and Argentina.

Other top teams may be less certain of their position, but Australia, Scotland, Fiji, Italy, Georgia and Wales will be desperate to force their way into the top six before the end of November.

Italy will improve their situation if they beat the Wallabies and Boks. Their chances of beating the Boks may be improved by the 15 November clash in Turin falling between South Africa’s most important tour fixtures against France and Ireland.

Erasmus may rest his first-choice players and use the game in Turin as an opportunity to field second- and third-tier players, with the development of the squad and the future in mind.

That said, the 36-man squad picked for the five-match tour boasts quality in depth across the board. That double World Cup winners such as Lukhanyo Am, Bongi Mbonambi and Makazole Mapimpi have missed the cut – although all three are on standby – says a lot about Erasmus’ options.

The Boks should beat Italy and win the final tour fixture against Wales, and Erasmus should get more answers regarding the depth of his squad.

Australia have arguably the toughest tour schedule, playing Japan this Saturday, 25 October, before facing England, Italy, Ireland and France thereafter.

Although Joe Schmidt’s team showed promise in the recent Rugby Championship, they come into this series as the world’s seventh-ranked side.

Italy (10th) may view the upcoming game against the Wallabies as a chance to climb the ladder, but if Australia score an upset or two against England, Ireland and France while beating Japan and the Azzurri, they could sneak into the top six. They will be hoping that Wales, Scotland and England do them a favour and stop Argentina from retaining their current ranking of sixth.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks could finish the season at the top of the standings if they beat Ireland (in Chicago), Scotland, England and Wales – and if the Boks stumble against France and Ireland.

Erasmus will be mindful of the permutations.

It’s been a great year for South African rugby, but a poor tour to the north that results in a drop down the rankings would be one hell of an anticlimax.

At the start of the season, Erasmus marked the fixture against Ireland in Dublin as the most important clash of the year. Since then, Ireland have delivered some underwhelming performances in the Six Nations and relinquished their title, whereas the Boks have cracked on to clinch another Rugby Championship.

Many of those Irish players, as well as head coach Andy Farrell, have gone on to win a series with the British & Irish Lions in Australia. In spite of this success, they may view the matches against the All Blacks, Wallabies and Boks this November as a chance to make a statement about the strength of Irish rugby.

Although that Lions series result was monumental, there’s a good chance that the home nations will finish the 2025 season behind the likes of South Africa, New Zealand and France in the world rankings.

In that event, the narrative will change for the home nations, and a Lions victory – against a seventh-ranked Australia – may be viewed in a different light.

The game in Dublin will be the most important of the Boks’ tour, in the sense that South Africa haven’t won in the Irish capital for 13 years and haven’t beaten Ireland away over the course of Erasmus’s tenure.

Looking at the schedule as a whole, the 22 November fixture could be the biggest of the series.

The Boks will play Japan, France and Italy before travelling to Dublin, whereas Ireland will face the All Blacks in Chicago before heading home to tackle Japan and Australia.

The Boks have the depth to cope with the challenge of playing five games in as many weeks. The same cannot be said of Ireland (four in four). They’ve already lost stars such as fullback Hugo Keenan, lock Joe McCarthy and winger Calvin Nash to long-term injuries, and may be further depleted by the time they host the South Africans.

It’s not often that the Boks complete a clean sweep on a European tour – and the three-from-three return in November 2024 was hailed as a rare success.

But given the recent results and the group’s strength in depth, there’s ample reason to believe that a five-from-five return is possible this November and the Boks are well placed to retain their number 1 ranking. DM

Jon Cardinelli is a freelance writer

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.