Plan to postpone Zimbabwe elections to keep Mnangagwa in power roils ruling Zanu-PF

The long-simmering power struggle between Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga is widely expected to erupt at the ruling ZanuPF party’s annual conference this week.

The conference is expected to hotly debate a proposal by Mnangagwa’s supporters to postpone elections due in 2028 until 2030, and possibly beyond.

If it succeeds, this resolution would effectively extend Mnangagwa’s tenure beyond the two-term limit stipulated by the constitution. 

His backers in the party have for months been lobbying support for Resolution Number One – also known as ED2030 – which embodies this plan. They argue that it is necessary for Zimbabwe that Mnangagwa remain in office beyond 2028 to complete his development agenda.

Mnangagwa is holding himself aloof from the fray, insisting he is a “constitutionalist”. But no one is fooled and ED2030 – reflecting the 83-year-old president’s first names of Emmerson Dambudzo – is widely seen as a thinly veiled attempt to cling to power.

Chiwenga is certainly not fooled. As head of the Zimbabwe Defence Force, Chiwenga helped Mnangagwa oust Zimbabwe’s founding President Robert Mugabe in a military coup (though never of course officially acknowledged as such) in November 2017.

Mnangagwa rewarded Chiwenga by appointing him vice-president with the expectation, it is widely believed, that he would succeed Mnangagwa as Zanu-PF’s presidential candidate – and therefore almost automatically the next national president – in 2028.

But then ED2030 intervened at last year’s Zanu-PF conference in Bulawayo. Mnangagwa’s faction is lobbying hard to have it confirmed at this year’s conference in the eastern town of Mutare.

Chiwenga has struck back by denouncing the ED2030 plan in a leaked confidential document which was presented to Mnangagwa and the ruling Zanu-PF praesidium – the top five – and the party’s decision-making politburo on 17 September, according to NewsHawks and other media.

Chiwenga appears to have tried to mask his true target by accusing former cabinet minister Jonathan Moyo of treason for writing a document titled Breaking Barriers Initiative: Putting Zimbabwe First, in which he supports ED2030 by proposing to postpone the 2028 elections to 2035, according to a NewsHawks report. 

The report says Moyo proposed to “identify and break chronic toxic barriers to efficient and effective service delivery, infrastructural development and socioeconomic progress in Zimbabwe primarily caused by the scourge of perennially disputed elections and the resultant scourge of a toxic governance and policy environment in between the disputed elections”.

‘Great opportunist’

Moyo is considered to be a great opportunist. In 2018, he bitterly opposed Mnangagwa in his power struggle with Mugabe and had to flee for his life into exile when soldiers attacked his house in Harare during the coup.

He is now reputed to be living in Nairobi and appears to be trying to ingratiate himself with Mnangagwa by publicly backing his bid to cling to power beyond 2028.

Chiwenga’s confidential party memo also took an indirect swipe at Mnangagwa by attacking corrupt business allies of his, like Kudakwashe Tagwirei, Wicknell Chivayo, Scott Sakupwanya and Delish Nguwaya.

Chiwenga’s document calls for their arrest for looting billions in US dollars from public coffers for self-enrichment and now for funding their political ambitions.

Tagwirei and Chivayo, especially, have become hugely and unashamedly rich by winning government contracts, many of which they have not completed. 

It is widely suspected that they cycle part of the proceeds from these contracts back to Zanu-PF, particularly to Mnangagwa.

Mnangagwa, in turn, uses some of this money to buy support from Zanu-PF officials and senior military officers for his bid to extend his tenure.

According to the journal Africa Confidential, on 15 September this year, at a party celebrating Mnangagwa’s birthday, Chivayo gave each of Zanu-PF’s provincial chairs a 2025 Toyota Land Cruiser and $100,000 in cash. On 19 September, Mnangagwa distributed vehicles to three Central Committee members per province.

And on 29 September, Mnangagwa gave 102 vehicles to senior military commanders, announcing that it was just the first tranche of 700 vehicles that would be given to army officers in the coming months, the journal said.

The gifts to the military officers were clearly intended as an insurance policy to prevent them from ousting Mnangagwa, as they had ousted Mugabe. This was particularly important as Chiwenga is believed to have retained significant support in the military, though Mnangagwa has replaced several of his supporters in the high command. 

This week, Daily Maverick asked President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Vincent Magwenya to comment on the reports of deep divisions within Zanu-PF. 

Magwenya declined to comment, saying that it was an internal matter for Zimbabweans to resolve.

In fact, if the power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga does erupt, it could aggravate political and economic instability and propel even more Zimbabweans across the border into South Africa to join the millions of their compatriots already here. DM