Crossed Wires: The symbolism, semaphores and snubs of China’s 2025 Victory Day Parade

Last Wednesday, China held its “Victory Day Parade” in Beijing. It was the usual somewhat anachronistic display of military pomp and carefully coded messages, few of which were directly related to the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression” (1937-1945), which is what the parade was supposed to celebrate.

These ostentatious political spectacles always contain an element of theatre and performance art. Implicit and explicit messages are delivered in the seating arrangements, the temperature of handshakes and smiles, who was invited and who decided not to come, and the size of military phalluses on carefully choreographed display.

There was a second, unusual, layer to the event for the commentariat to interpret – it came only hours after another meeting in China of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which is part economic forum, part security forum, but sometimes looks more like a therapy session for countries not invited to the G7. We’ll get back to that presently.

So, who was at the Victory Parade party? Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un (looking positively giddy), seated like old drinking buddies in a mafia film. Add to that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, plus a handful of leaders from Cuba, Indonesia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and much of the Global South. In short, the “Axis of Those Who Prefer To Bow Down to Xi Rather Than Trump”. 

Who stayed at home? The West. Not a single US, European or Japanese leader thought it wise to be caught in that group photo. Call it ghosting by the G7. Their absence was itself a loud message: “Uh, no thanks, we’re good, but hope you have fun.” This left Xi with exactly the audience he wanted: allies, quasi-allies and fence-sitters who could be counted on to clap politely as the ordnance rolled past the VIPs.

And what a selection of ordnance it was, at least to the untrained eye. Gigantic intercontinental ballistic missiles (DF-61, DF-31BJ), shiny new submarine-launched JL-3 missiles, swarms of sea drones, directed-energy anti-drone weapons, and even AI-guided “wolf-dog” robots that look like something out of a dystopian sci-fi film (I have seen videos of these beasts – you do not want them chasing you down). US military strategists may have yawned a bit because they know that this is just for show – no one is going to reveal the really secret stuff at a public event. But for others, the well-muscled procession of the heavy machinery of death is itself a deterrent. The message was: “We’ve got the goods and we know how to use them, and we have stuffed them to the gills with AI, so do not f*ck with us.”

Xi’s speech was carefully muted. He saluted veterans, praised peace and warned against “foreign aggression”. All familiar and uncontested ground. But, as in any good stage play, the drama lay in what he didn’t say: there was no mention of Taiwan, Ukraine or the Middle East. Omissions in Beijing are as political as proclamations. No mention of Kim’s often faulty missiles, or Iran’s humiliating 12-day defeat in the recent war with Israel, or Russia’s endless stuck-in-the-mud war with Ukraine. Everyone acted as though all’s well with their world.

There was another unspoken Chinese performance to be observed. China is forging ahead of the rest of the world in multiple technologies but things are not that rosy at home. Growth, for a long time a proud double-digit brag, is now stuck at about 4%. There has been a purge of corrupt military officials, youth unemployment is high (15%) and the recent collapse in the real estate sector has hurt both consumer and CCP confidence. Nothing pumps national pride and salves anxiety more than a clockwork display of precision marching by the People’s Liberation Army, backed by big guns and onstage bigwigs. Or so they hope.

Which brings us to Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, a traditional US ally. Modi recently found himself caught between a rock and a hard place. He got into a spat with Donald Trump about who ended the recent hostilities between India and Pakistan (hint: it wasn’t Trump, even though he tried to claim it). He also resisted Trump’s pressure not to buy Russian oil and was then faced with some classic Trumpian insults. But India doesn’t have a great relationship with China either. They share nearly 4,500km of border and have had multiple clashes over the last 65 years, most recently in 2022.

So, Modi faced a strategic tightrope walk. This is what he did:

The Indian prime minister arrived in China for the SCO summit, dutifully shook hands, posed for photos and made polite noises about multilateralism. After all, India is a founding member of the SCO. Then, before the Victory Day Parade began, he was on a plane back to Delhi. It was the diplomatic equivalent of attending the wedding ceremony but skipping the after-party. Indian commentators called it “strategic autonomy”. Cynics might call it “ghosting with style”.

The geopolitical consequence of this whole spectacle (save for Modi’s hedging) was a little flaccid. Xi showed off his friends (especially Putin and Kim) to the West but then we already knew they were buddies. China also showed off its extensive military arsenal, but the West’s military intelligence presumably knew about that too. It showed that the People’s Republic is very good at marching and stuff. Nothing much to write home about.

There was one memorable incident though – the hot-mic moment where Xi and Putin were overheard discussing living for 150 years with the help of radical life extension technology. Obviously it’s a heap of fun being a dictator – no one would want it to end. We must hope that this is not the only moment we will remember in a few decades. DM

Steven Boykey Sidley is a professor of practice at JBS, University of Johannesburg, and a partner at Bridge Capital and a columnist-at-large at Daily Maverick. His new book, It’s Mine: How the Crypto Industry is Redefining Ownership, is published by Maverick451 in South Africa and Legend Times Group in the UK/EU, available now.