Knowledge over hope — why the Boks could succeed in New Zealand

Jean de Villiers often made the distinction between knowledge and hope during his stint as Springbok captain, from 2012 to 2015.

The Boks struggled to beat the All Blacks during that period, winning just one of the eight match-ups.

Although decorated veterans such as De Villiers knew what it felt like to win against New Zealand, younger players such as Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi and Willie le Roux were armed with little more than hope before each Freedom Cup showdown.

Heyneke Meyer’s Boks eventually edged the All Blacks 27-25 at Ellis Park in 2014. That result provided the younger generation with the knowledge that future victories were possible — although it wasn’t until Rassie Erasmus took charge in 2018 that the group’s mindset truly started to change.

Fast-forward nearly a decade, where the Boks have so many concrete reasons to expect at least one win on their current tour of New Zealand.

As per his press conference comments this past week, Erasmus is mindful of South Africa’s four from 26 win-record in New Zealand since 1996, and the fact that the Boks haven’t won at Eden Park or claimed a series victory in the country since 1937.

Draw a line between 2018 and all the fixtures that came before, and a different narrative is made clear. This chapter documents a more competitive rivalry, where the Boks have the edge over the men in black.

The numbers fuelling Bok belief

To paraphrase De Villiers’ words about knowledge and hope, this group of Boks knows rather than hopes they can beat the All Blacks. The players’ knowledge, and ultimately their belief, is rooted in past results in South Africa, on neutral soil and, yes, even in New Zealand.

The graphic below highlights how much more consistent the Boks have been since Erasmus came to power, in comparison with all results against New Zealand in the professional era.

What’s interesting to note — and what’s particularly relevant in the context of the next two matches — is the record of specific players during this period.

Etzebeth, Kolisi and Le Roux have been with the squad for more than 12 years and featured for the Boks on their last visit to Eden Park in 2013.

Over the course of his 135-Test career, Etzebeth has missed just one match against the All Blacks (in Dune­din back in 2012), playing 23 consecutive matches against South Africa’s arch-rivals.

There are other players who have featured prominently in the Freedom Cup series over the past decade — and who have toured New Zealand multiple times.

When focusing on the matches staged in 2018 and later, it’s worth noting who Erasmus has backed consistently, and who has featured in the three games staged in New Zealand — namely the Boks’ 36-34 win in Wellington in 2018, the 16-16 draw in Wellington in 2019, and the 35-20 loss in Auckland in 2023.

Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe, Faf de Klerk, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Etzebeth, Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman, Le Roux and Franco Mostert played in all three matches. Of the players now on tour, a further six featured in at least one of those matches in Wellington — namely Kolisi, Jesse Kriel, Handré Pollard, Wilco Louw, Kwagga Smith and Makazole Mapimpi.

As many as 15 players on tour know what it takes to succeed in New Zealand, as they have experienced that success before. They will respect the current All Blacks team and the locals’ formidable record in New Zealand, but they won’t be intimidated by it.

Four-game streak

A closer look at the Boks’ recent record against the All Blacks — taking home and neutral matches into account — provides more reasons for South African confidence.

Apart from the players mentioned in the “Success in New Zealand” group above, there are 13 others in the touring party who contributed to the previous wins in London, Paris, Johannesburg and Cape Town.

Ox Nché, Vincent Koch, Ruan Nortje, Marco van Staden, Jasper Wiese, Grant Williams, Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Manie Libbok, André Esterhuizen, Canan Moodie, Aphelele Fassi and Damian Willemse were all involved at some point during the Boks’ four-game winning streak against the All Blacks. 

Although he didn’t feature in that period specifically, Lood de Jager has beaten New Zealand before.

In short, 29 of the players in New Zealand know what it takes to beat the All Blacks.

Thomas du Toit was on the losing side in his one and only match against New Zealand (Auckland, 2023), while the six remaining squad members have yet to face the men in black.

It’s a relevant breakdown, which shows why the Springboks will head into the next two games without any fear.

There’s been a lot of talk about overconfidence following the Boks’ 38-22 loss to the Wallabies in the first round of the Rugby Championship.

Some might view the argument above, or the very expectation of a win in New Zealand, as another example of supposed South African arrogance.

But the results show how the Boks have been more competitive — regardless of the venue — over the past eight years, and how they have dominated the rivalry for the past two.

Although South Africa’s overall record in New Zealand makes for dire reading, recent results provide concrete reasons for optimism before the clashes in Auckland and Wellington. DM

Jon Cardinelli is a freelance writer.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.