Boks to show tactical hand in two New Zealand ‘finals’ in Auckland and Wellington

The waiting is over, and the biggest rugby Tests of the year are finally upon us (on Saturday, 6 September 2025). The Freedom Cup title is on the line, and the double-header in New Zealand may also determine who lifts the Rugby Championship trophy.

Rassie Erasmus’ team is looking to become the first Springbok side to win at Eden Park – and to secure back-to-back victories in New Zealand – since 1937.

The All Blacks are aiming to defend their 50-game unbeaten run at the Auckland fortress, and to end their four-match losing streak against the Boks.

Both teams will be desperate to prevail, and as a result, we could be in for two fixtures that mirror the intensity of a World Cup final or a British & Irish Lions series decider. 

Back-row uncertainty

But neither team will be at full strength for the marquee series.

The Boks are missing double World Cup-winners Frans Malherbe and Trevor Nyakane, as well as one of the breakout stars of the 2024 season, loosehead prop Gerhard Steenekamp. Wingers Kurt-Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe were ruled out on the eve of the tour to New Zealand.

Although the Boks have the depth to mitigate those front-row and back-three losses, concerns over their depleted loose-forward stocks persist.

No 8 Jasper Wiese is serving a four-game suspension, and won’t be available until the second Test.

Other outstanding No 8 options such as Elrigh Louw and Cameron Hanekom have been ruled out for the season by injury, and flankers Deon Fourie and BJ Dixon may only return at the back end of the campaign.

Siya Kolisi sustained a knee injury in the first Test against Australia in Johannesburg, and the initial prognosis was a four-week layoff that would preclude the Bok skipper from the tour to New Zealand.

Since then, Kolisi and another ailing star in Pieter-Steph du Toit have passed their respective medical tests to earn their places in the touring party – but it’s unclear whether Kolisi will play at Eden Park.

Back row ‘mix and match’

The Bok coach has been forced to mix and match in the back row over the first six games of the season, using five different No 8 options.

Evan Roos missed out on selection for the Rugby Championship squad, while Cobus Wiese was placed on standby when the team departed for New Zealand.

The upshot is that Kolisi, Kwagga Smith or Jean-Luc du Preez – who hasn’t played a Test since 2023 – will be tasked with the No 8 responsibility in Auckland.

Read more: All Blacks versus Boks at Eden Park is the game of the year

Though the All Blacks have back-row issues of their own, their biggest problem is at scrumhalf, where Cameron Roigard, Cortez Ratima and Noah Hotham are all sidelined with injury.

Finlay Christie looks set to start at No 9, with the uncapped Kyle Preston providing cover from the bench – and this may compromise the All Blacks’ decision-­making and execution. It’s also worth noting that New Zealand are without their strongest flyhalf option in Richie Mo’unga, who is ineligible for selection while playing his club rugby in Japan.

Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie have blown hot and cold over the past two seasons, and goal-kicking accuracy is a concern for the men in black. 

Flyhalf, Bomb Squad central to strategy

Erasmus has a different sort of headache at flyhalf, with Handré Pollard, Manie Libbok and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu all part of the touring party.

Pollard impressed in the recent win against Australia in Cape Town, providing the team with direction and nailing all six shots at goal.

The veteran (812 points) is closing in on Percy Montgomery’s all-time record of 893. He hasn’t missed a kick for the Boks since the Test against Scotland in Edinburgh last November. It’s not a matter of whether Pollard plays in Auckland, but whether he starts or features from the bench.

Erasmus has used Libbok and Pollard as a combination before, starting the former at the 2023 World Cup, and then deploying the latter from the bench to close out the game.

In the most recent fixture against the Wallabies, Pollard played 80 minutes at No 10, while Feinberg-Mngomezulu came off the bench to give the Boks more tactical options at fullback.

Read more: Clinical Pollard leads Boks to tight victory over Wallabies in Cape Town thriller

These flyhalf selections could well determine who Erasmus uses in the back-three and who else features from the bench. Aphelele Fassi’s height and aerial ability could be a factor, as the Boks look to exploit the All Blacks’ vulnerabilities under the high ball. With Arendse and Van der Merwe sidelined, Canan Moodie may continue on the wing.

Given the high stakes, the Boks are likely to revert to the pragmatic game plan that has brought them so much success in the past.

It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Erasmus stacking his match with four locks, and favouring a six-two split on the bench. There’s also a chance that the Bok coach will revisit the seven-one strategy – a formation he tends to reserve for special occasions.

There’s been plenty of buzz around hybrid players such as André Esterhuizen and a possible four-four split between forwards and backs on the bench, but the Boks are unlikely to gamble in New Zealand.

That said, Erasmus has shown his opposite number, Scott Robertson, a variety of tactical pictures over the past six matches, and the All Blacks coach can’t be sure that the Boks won’t spring a surprise.

At the very least, the All Blacks coaches and analysts will be forced to work round the clock over the next few days to ensure all their bases are covered.

Defence the biggest worry

The breakdown and gainline battles will be key, and both teams have had their issues in these departments over the past few weeks.

The Boks’ inconsistent approach to the attacking breakdown has led to turnovers and soft penalties. The All Blacks’ discipline problems run a lot deeper, as the stat of five yellow cards in two matches confirms.

Although the scrum remains the cornerstone of the Bok approach, their work around the line-out and maul has been underwhelming this year.

The long-range maul try they conceded against Italy in Pretoria still rankles, and their line-out was picked off all too easily in the recent double-header against Australia. They showed some improvement at the line-out in Cape Town, and yet, they remain at the bottom of the Rugby Championship rankings for line-out success (80%).

The maul has been used sparingly in recent games, and one wonders whether this is a confidence issue or whether they’re holding something back for the All Blacks clashes.

Overall, there’s been an outcry in the wake of the matches against Australia over the Boks’ move towards a more expansive game. What many forget is that the Boks employed more than one strategy over the course of a monumental 2024 season of 11 wins in 13 matches.

Indeed, the Boks pushed the tempo in the first game against New Zealand in Joburg, before reverting to a more pragmatic approach in Cape Town.

They tore Argentina to shreds in the Rugby Championship finale, before switching to a forward-oriented, kick-chase game plan on the tour of the UK.

Fears the Boks are moving away from the DNA may be unfounded, but the drop in their defensive standards has been alarming. They leaked nine tries in the first two rounds of the Rugby Championship. Last season, they conceded 10 over the entire six-round tournament.

Defence wins championships, as the Boks themselves have proved over the past eight years. Though they’ve added to their attacking arsenal recently, their success in the coming matches may well be shaped by their defensive display. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.